New Releases by Alan B. Krueger

Germany has experienced a high and rising rate of anti-foreigner violence during the early 1990s. To analyze the determinants of crime against foreigners we assembled a new data set on the number and nature of such crimes at the county level based on newspaper reports. We find significant differences in the patterns of violence in the eastern and western parts of the country. The incidence of anti- foreigner crime is higher in the east and rises with distance from the former west German border. Economic variables like unemployment and wages matter little for the level of crime once location in the east is taken into account. The relative number of foreigners in a country has no relationship with the incidence of ethnic crimes in the west, whereas in the east it has a positive association with the number of crimes per resident and a negative association with the number of crimes per foreign resident.

Two-stage-least-squares (2SLS) estimates are biased towards OLS estimates. This bias grows with the degree of over-identification and can generate highly misleading results. In this paper we propose two simple alternatives to 2SLS and limited-information-maximum-likelihood (LIML) estimators for models with more instruments than endogenous regressors. These estimators can be interpreted as instrumental variables procedures using an instrument that is independent of disturbances even in finite samples. Independence is achieved by using a `leave-one-out'' jackknife-type fitted value in place of the usual first-stage equation. The new estimators are first-order equivalent to 2SLS but with finite-sample properties superior to those of 2SLS and similar to LIML when there are many instruments. Moreover, the jackknife estimators appear to be less sensitive than LIML to deviations from the linear reduced form used in classical simultaneous equations models.

This paper reinvestigates the evidence on the impact of the minimum wage on employment in Puerto Rico. The strongest evidence that the minimum wage had a negative effect on employment comes from an aggregate time series analysis. The weakest evidence comes from cross-industry analyses. The main finding of the paper, however, is that the statistical evidence of a negative employment effect of the minimum wage in Puerto Rico is surprisingly fragile.

About 3% of GNP is spent on government labor market programs in Sweden, compared to 2 % in Germany and less than 0.5% in the U.S. In Sweden these programs include extensive job training, mobility bonuses and unemployment benefits. Reviews of previous literature suggest that job training programs have small effects on wages and re-employment in Sweden, but precise inferences are difficult because of small sample sizes. The authors also investigate alternative reasons for the stability of the Beveridge Curve in Sweden, and compare regional evolutions of employment and unemployment in Sweden and the U.S. Lastly a cross-country analysis is presented showing that the extent of a country''s active labor market program is positively associated with the national unemployment rate.

On April 1, 1992 New Jersey''s minimum wage increased from $4.25 to $5.05 per hour. To evaluate the impact of the law we surveyed 410 fast food restaurants in New Jersey and Pennsylvania before and after the rise in the minimum. Comparisons of the changes in wages, employment, and prices at stores in New Jersey relative to stores in Pennsylvania (where the minimum wage remained fixed at $4.25 per hour) yield simple estimates of the effect of the higher minimum wage. Our empirical findings challenge the prediction that a rise in the minimum reduces employment. Relative to stores in Pennsylvania, fast food restaurants in New Jersey increased employment by 13 percent. We also compare employment growth at stores in New Jersey that were initially paying high wages (and were unaffected by the new law) to employment changes at lower-wage stores. Stores that were unaffected by the minimum wage had the same employment growth as stores in Pennsylvania, while stores that had to increase their wages increased their employment.

This paper uses a new survey to contrast the wages of genetically identical twins with different schooling levels. Multiple measurements of schooling levels were also collected to assess the effect of reporting error on the estimated economic returns to schooling. The data indicate that omitted ability variables do not bias the estimated return to schooling upward, but that measurement error does bias it downward. Adjustment for measurement error indicates that an additional year of schooling increases wages by 16%, a higher estimate of the economic returns to schooling than has been previously found.

This paper presents evidence on the quality of schooling by race and ethnic origin in the United States. Although substantial racial segregation across schools exists, the average pupil-teacher ratio is approximately the same for black and white students. Hispanic students, however, on average have 10 percent more students per teacher. Relative to whites, blacks and Hispanics are less likely to use computers at school and at work. The implications of these differences in school quality for labor market outcomes are examined. We conclude by examining reasons for the increase in the black-white earnings gap since the mid-1970s.

We use a demand/supply framework to analyze 1) the decline in union membership since 1977 in the United States and 2) the difference in unionization rates between the United States and Canada. We extend earlier work on these problems by analyzing new data for 1991 from the General Social Survey and for 1992 from our own household survey on worker preferences for union representation. When combined with earlier data for 1977 from the Quality of Employment Survey and for 1984 from a survey conducted for the AFL-CIO, we are able to decompose changes in unionization into changes in demand and changes in supply. We also analyze data for 1990 from a survey conducted for the Canadian Federation of Labor on the preferences of Canadian workers for union representation. We find that virtually all of the decline in union membership in the United States between 1977 and 1991 is due to a decline in worker demand for union representation. There was almost no change over this period in the relative supply of union jobs. Additionally, very little of the decline in unionization in the U.S. can be accounted for by structural shifts in the composition of the labor force. Next, we find that all of the higher unionization rate in the U.S. public sector in 1984 can be accounted for by higher demand for unionization and that there is actually more frustrated demand for union representation in the public sector. Finally. we tentatively conclude that the difference in unionization rates between the U.S. and Canada is accounted for roughly in equal measure by differences in demand and in supply.

In 1988, the wage distribution in East Germany was much more compressed than in West Germany or the U.S. Since the collapse of Communism and unification with West Germany, however, the wage structure in eastern Germany has changed considerably. In particular, wage variation has increased, the payoff to education has decreased somewhat, industry differentials have expanded, and the white collar premium has increased. Although average wage growth has been remarkably high in eastern Germany, individual variation in wage growth is similar to typical western levels. The wage structure of former East Germans who work in western Germany resembles the wage structure of native West Germans in some respects, but their experience-earnings profile is flat.

Between 1970 and 1973 priority for military service was randomly assigned to draft-age men in a series of lotteries. Many men who were at risk of being drafted managed to avoid military service by enrolling in school and obtaining an educational deferment This paper uses the draft lottery as a natural experiment to estimate the return to education and the veteran premium. Estimates are based on special extracts of the Current Population Survey for 1979and 1981-85. The results suggest that an extra year of schooling acquired in response to the lottery is associated with6.6 percent higher weekly earnings. This figure is about 10 percent higher than the OLS estimate of the return to education in this sample, which suggests there is omitted-variable bias in conventional estimates of the return to education. Our findings are robust to a variety of assumptions about the effect of veteran status on earnings.

Using data from a longitudinal survey of fast food restaurants in Texas, the authors examine the impact of recent changes in the federal minimum wage on a low-wage labor market The authors draw four main conclusions. First, the survey results indicate that less than 5 percent of fast food restaurants use the new youth subminimum wage even though the vast majority paid a starting wage below the new hourly minimum wage immediately before the new minimum went into effect. Second, although some restaurants increased wages by an amount exceeding that necessary to comply with higher minimum wages in both 1990 and 1991, recent increases in the federal minimum wage have greatly compressed the distribution of starting wages in the Texas fast food industry. Third, employment increased relatively in those firms likely to have been most affected by the 1991 minimum wage increase. Fourth, changes in the prices of meals appear to be unrelated to mandated wage changes. These employment and price changes do not seem consistent with conventional views of the effects of increases in a binding minimum wage.

The average wage differential between black and white men fell from 40 percent in 1960 to 25 percent in 1980. Much of this convergence is attributable to a relative increase in the rate of return to schooling among black workers. It is widely argued that the growth in the relative return to black education reflects the dramatic improvements in the quality of black schooling over the past century. To test this hypothesis we have assembled data on three aspects of school quality -- pupil teacher ratios. annual teacher pay. and term length for black and white schools in 18 segregated states from 1915 to 1966. The school quality data are linked to estimated rates of return to education for Southern-born men from different cohorts and states. measured in 1960. 1970. and 1980. Improvements in the relative quality of black schools explain 20 percent of the narrowing of the black-white earnings gap between 1960 and 1980.

A reduction in trade barriers generally will affect the environment by expanding the scale of economic activity, by altering the composition of economic activity, and by bringing about a change in the techniques of production. We present empirical evidence to assess the relative magnitudes of these three effects as they apply to further trade liberalization in Mexico. In Section 1. we use comparable measures of three air pollutants in a cross-section of urban areas located in 42 countries to study the relationship between air quality and economic growth. We find for two pollutants (sulfur dioxide and "smoke") that concentrations increase with per capita GDP at low levels of national income, but decrease with GD? growth at higher levels of income. Section 2 studies the determinants of the industry pattern of U.S. imports from Mexico and of value added by Mexico''s maquiladora sector. We investigate whether the size of pollution abatement costs in the U.S. industry influences the pattern of international trade and investment. Finally, in Section 3, we use the results from a computable general equilibrium model to study the likely compositional effect of a NAFTA on pollution in Mexico

Workers'' compensation insurance provides cash payments and medical benefits to workers who incur a work-related injury or illness. Many features of the workers'' compensation program parallel features of proposed mandated employer-paid health insurance plans. This paper empirically examines the incidence of the workers'' compensation program to infer the likely consequences of mandated health insurance proposals. In certain industries, such as trucking and carpentry, workers'' compensation insurance costs are quite large, and vary tremendously within states over time, and across states at a moment in time. This variation is used to identify the incidence of the program. Empirical analysis of two data sets suggest that changes in employers'' costs of workers'' compensation insurance are largely shifted to employees in the form of lower wages. In addition, higher insurance costs are found to have a negative but statistically insignificant effect on employment. The implied elasticity of labor demand from our results is about -.50.

This paper uses a new administrative micro-data set to examine the effect of a legislated increase in the minimum and maximum workers'' compensation benefit on the duration of workplace injuries in Minnesota. As a result of legislation, workers in some earnings groups received higher benefits if they were injured after the effective date of the benefit increase, while workers in other earnings groups received the same benefit regardless of when they were injured. The analysis compares the change in mean log injury duration for workers who were affected by the benefit increase to that of workers who were not affected by the benefit increase. The findings indicate that the duration of injuries increased by 8 percent more for the group of workers that experienced a 5 percent increase in benefits than for the group of workers that had no change in their benefit. Additional findings suggest that employees of self-insured firms who are injured on the job tend to return to work faster than employees of imperfectly experience rated firms who incur similar injuries.

Abstract: parental income or education affects state-level rates of return.

This paper uses Current Population Survey data on a large sample of workers to estimate the determinants of participation in state workers'' compensation programs in the United States. The principal finding is Chat higher workers'' compensation benefits are associated with greater participation in the workers'' compensation program, after accounting for worker characteristics, state fixed effects, and other aspects of the workers'' compensation law. Moreover, this result holds for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing workers. Workers'' compensation benefits, however, have an insignificant effect on program participation for the sample of women. Overall, a 10% increase in benefits is associated with a 6.7% increase in program participation. In addition, the results show that the waiting period that is required before benefit payments begin has a substantial negative effect on participation in the workers'' compensation program. Finally, the parameters of the cross-sectional model are used to simulate the aggregate workers'' compensation incidence rate from 1969 to 1987. The growth in workers'' compensation claims in the 1970s appears to correspond reasonably well co the growth in real benefits that occurred during this time period.

Veterans of World War II are widely believed to earn more than nonveterans of the same age. Theoretical justifications for the World War II veteran premium include the subsidization of education and training, and preference for veterans in hiring. In this paper, we propose and test an alternative view: that the observed World War II veteran premium reflects the fact that men with higher earnings potential were more likely to have been selected into the Armed Forces. An empirical strategy is developed that allows estimation of the effects of veteran status while controlling for correlation with unobserved earnings potential. The estimation is based on the fact that from 1942 to 1947 priority for conscription was determined in chronological order of birth. Information on individuals'' dates of birth may therefore be used to construct instruments for veteran status. Empirical results from the 1960, 1970, and 1980 Censuses, along with two other micro data sets, support a conclusion that World War II veterans earn no more than comparable nonveterans, and may well earn less. These results suggest that 015 estimates of the World War II veteran premium are severely biased by nonrandom selection into military service, and that the civilian labor market experiences of veterans of World War II were not very different from the experiences of Vietnam-era veterans.

This paper examines the properties and prevalence of measurement error in longitudinal earnings data. The analysis compares Current Population Survey data to administrative Social Security payroll tax records for a sample of heads of households over two years. In contrast. to the typically assumed properties of measurement error, the results indicate that errors are serially correlated over two years and negatively correlated with true earnings (i.e., mean reverting). Moreover, reported earnings are more reliable for females than males. Overall, the ratio of the variance of the signal to the total variance is .82 for men and .92 for women. These ratios fall to .65 and .81 when the data are specified in first-differences. The estimates suggest that longitudinal earnings data may be more reliable than previously believed.