New Releases by William Poundstone

How do you predict something that has never happened before? There''s a useful calculation being employed by Wall Street, Silicon Valley and maths professors all over the world, and it predicts that the human species will become extinct in 760 years. Unfortunately, there is disagreement over how to apply the formula, and some argue that we might only have twenty years left. Originally devised by British clergyman Thomas Bayes, the theorem languished in obscurity for two hundred years before being resurrected as the lynchpin of the digital economy. With brief detours into archaeology, philology, and overdue library books, William Poundstone explains how we can use it to predict pretty much anything. What is the chance that there are multiple universes? How long will Hamilton run? Will the US stock market continue to perform as well this century as it has for the last hundred years? And are we really all doomed?

From the author of Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google?, a fascinating look at how an equation that foretells the future is transforming everything we know about life, business, and the universe. In the 18th century, the British minister and mathematician Thomas Bayes devised a theorem that allowed him to assign probabilities to events that had never happened before. It languished in obscurity for centuries until computers came along and made it easy to crunch the numbers. Now, as the foundation of big data, Bayes'' formula has become a linchpin of the digital economy. But here''s where things get really interesting: Bayes'' theorem can also be used to lay odds on the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence; on whether we live in a Matrix-like counterfeit of reality; on the "many worlds" interpretation of quantum theory being correct; and on the biggest question of all: how long will humanity survive? The Doomsday Calculation tells how Silicon Valley''s profitable formula became a controversial pivot of contemporary thought. Drawing on interviews with thought leaders around the globe, it''s the story of a group of intellectual mavericks who are challenging what we thought we knew about our place in the universe. The Doomsday Calculation is compelling reading for anyone interested in our culture and its future.

What''s the point of knowing anything when facts are so easy to look up? Just reach for your computer, tablet or mobile and ask the sky. We''re living in the golden age of rational ignorance where more people know who Khloe Kardashian is than who René Descartes was and most of us can''t name the largest ocean on the planet. Yet the latest research indicates that the better informed are healthier, happier and often dramatically wealthier. Bestselling author William Poundstone conducts a hilarious and humbling investigation into the true worth of knowledge. What does it tell you, for example, when those who can pinpoint a country on a map are less likely to favour invading it? Underpinned by big data analysis and illustrated with eye-opening anecdotes, Poundstone''s Head in the Cloud is an entertaining manifesto on the surprising benefits of broadening your horizons, as well as a warning of the dangers of an ill-informed electorate.

From paper-scissors-stone to the stock market, the economics and psychology that will help you play to win..

A practical guide to outguessing everything, from multiple-choice tests to the office football pool to the stock market. People are predictable even when they try not to be. William Poundstone demonstrates how to turn this fact to personal advantage in scores of everyday situations, from playing the lottery to buying a home. Rock Breaks Scissors is mind-reading for real life. Will the next tennis serve go right or left? Will the market go up or down? Most people are poor at that kind of predicting. We are hard-wired to make bum bets on "trends" and "winning streaks" that are illusions. Yet ultimately we''re all in the business of anticipating the actions of others. Poundstone reveals how to overcome the errors and improve the accuracy of your own outguessing. Rock Breaks Scissors is a hands-on guide to turning life''s odds in your favor.

This fascinating popular science journey explores key concepts in information theory in terms of Conway''s "Game of Life" program. The author explains the application of natural law to a random system and demonstrates the necessity of limits. Other topics include the limits of knowledge, paradox of complexity, Maxwell''s demon, Big Bang theory, and much more. 1985 edition.

"Quante palle da golf stanno in uno scuolabus? ", "Misurate esattamente 9 minuti usando soltanto una clessidra da 4 minuti e una da 7 minuti", "Sei ridotto alle dimensioni di una monetina e ti buttano in un frullatore. La tua massa è anch''essa ridotta in modo che la tua densità rimanga invariata. Le lame cominceranno a girare tra sessanta secondi. Cosa fai?" Questi sono soltanto alcuni dei test apparentemente impossibili che vengono trattati in Sei abbastanza sveglio per lavorare in Google? In questa guida del ventunesimo secolo al lavoro dei vostri sogni, William Poundstone svela la storia, i segreti e le tortuose tecniche di selezione delle più importanti aziende - in particolare delle compagnie tecnologiche - del giorno d''oggi, svelandovi come affrontare e risolvere decine dei più difficili quesiti utilizzati nei colloqui di lavoro. Scoprirete l''importanza del pensiero creativo (e le ragioni per cui le compagnie lo apprezzano più di ogni altra qualità o referenza), acquisirete gli strumenti per avere la meglio nella competizione (tenendo presente che talvolta potrebbe non esserci una risposta giusta, ma che c''è sempre una risposta migliore), comprenderete quanto conti la vostra pagina Facebook (e come volgere a vostro favore i social network) e molto altro ancora. Questo libro è una guida affascinante, divertente e indispensabile alla soluzione del problema di come avere successo nell''odierno mercato del lavoro.

o Je krimpt tot een grootte van een dubbeltje en wordt in een blender gegooid. De blender zal binnen een minuut worden aangezet. Wat doet je? o Je zet een glas met water op een grammofoon en geleidelijk begint die steeds sneller te draaien. Wat gebeurt er als eerst: het glas glijdt ervan af, het glas valt om of het water valt eruit? o Je krijgt een blok kaas en een mes. Hoeveel keer moet je de kaas snijden, zodat je 27 kleine, gelijke blokjes hebt? o Hoeveel hele getallen tussen de 1 en 1.000 bevatten een 3? o Op een verlaten snelweg is de kans dat er een auto langskomt binnen 30 minuten 95%. Hoe hoog is de kans dat er een auto langskomt binnen 10 minuten? o Leg aan je neefje van acht jaar uit wat een database is en gebruik hiervoor 3 zinnen. Dit zijn vragen die je gesteld kunnen worden als je bij Google - of een willekeurig ander bedrijf in de dotcom economy - solliciteert. Ben jij slim genoeg om bij Google te werken? loodst je langs verrassende antwoorden op tientallen van de meest uitdagende vragen die op je afgevuurd kunnen worden tijdens een sollicitatiegesprek.

The No.1 bestseller new in paperback! You are shrunk to the height of a penny and thrown in a blender. The blades start moving in sixty seconds. What do you do? If you want to work at Google, or any of the world’s top employers, you’ll need to have a convincing answer to this and countless other baffling puzzles. Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google? Reveals the new extreme interview questions in the postcrash, hypercompetitive job-market and uncovers the extraordinary lengths to which the best companies will go to find the right staff. Bestselling author William Poundstone guides readers through the surprising solutions to over a hundred of the most challenging conundrums used in interviews, as well as covering the importance of creative thinking, what your Facebook page says about you, and what really goes on inside the Googleplex. How will you fare?

The inside story on institutional secrets, including the formula for Coca-Cola, how to beat a lie detector, currency conspiracies, and other hidden facts. Are there really secret backward messages in rock music, or is somebody nuts? We tested suspect tunes at a recording studio to find out. What goes on at Freemason initiations? Here''s the whole story, including—yes!—the electric carpet. Colonel Sanders boasted that Kentucky Fried Chicken''s eleven secret herbs and spices "stand on everybody''s shelf." We got a sample of the seasoning mix and sent it to a food chemist for analysis. Feverish rumor has it that Walt Disney''s body was frozen and now lies in a secret cryonic vault somewhere beneath the Pirates of the Caribbean exhibit at Disneyland. Read the certified stranger-than-fiction truth. Don''t bother trying to figure out how Doug Henning, David Copperfield, and Harry Blackstone, Jr., perform their illusions. Big Secrets has complete explanations and diagrams—nothing left to the imagination.

Our Electoral System is Fundamentally Flawed, But There''s a Simple and Fair Solution At least five U.S. presidential elections have been won by the second most popular candidate. The reason was a "spoiler"—a minor candidate who takes enough votes away from the most popular candidate to tip the election to someone else. The spoiler effect is more than a glitch. It is a consequence of one of the most surprising intellectual discoveries of the twentieth century: the "impossibility theorem" of Nobel laureate economist Kenneth Arrow. The impossibility theorem asserts that voting is fundamentally unfair—a finding that has not been lost on today''s political consultants. Armed with polls, focus groups, and smear campaigns, political strategists are exploiting the mathematical faults of the simple majority vote. In recent election cycles, this has led to such unlikely tactics as Republicans funding ballot drives for Green spoilers and Democrats paying for right-wing candidates'' radio ads. Gaming the Vote shows that there is a solution to the spoiler problem that will satisfy both right and left. A system called range voting, already widely used on the Internet, is the fairest voting method of all, according to computer studies. Despite these findings, range voting remains controversial, and Gaming the Vote assesses the obstacles confronting any attempt to change the American electoral system. The latest of several books by William Poundstone on the theme of how important scientific ideas have affected the real world, Gaming the Vote is a wry exposé of how the political system really works, and a call to action.

In 1961, MIT mathematics professor Ed Thorp made a small Vegas fortune by "counting cards"; his 1962 bestseller, "Beat the Dealer," made the phrase a household word. With Claude Shannon, the father of information theory, Thorp next conquered the roulette tables. In this prosaic but fascinating cultural history, the author tells not only what they did but how they did it.

From Wall Street to Silicon Valley, employers are using tough and tricky questions to gauge job candidates'' intelligence, imagination, and problem-solving ability -- qualities needed to survive in today''s hypercompetitive global marketplace. For the first time, William Poundstone reveals the toughest questions used at Microsoft and other Fortune 500 companies -- and supplies the answers. He traces the rise and controversial fall of employer-mandated IQ tests, the peculiar obsessions of Bill Gates (who plays jigsaw puzzles as a competitive sport), the sadistic mind games of Wall Street (which reportedly led one job seeker to smash a forty-third-story window), and the bizarre excesses of today''s hiring managers (who may start off your interview with a box of Legos or a game of virtual Russian roulette). How Would You Move Mount Fuji? is an indispensable book for anyone in business. Managers seeking the most talented employees will learn to incorporate puzzle interviews in their search for the top candidates. Job seekers will discover how to tackle even the most brain-busting questions, and gain the advantage that could win the job of a lifetime. And anyone who has ever dreamed of going up against the best minds in business may discover that these puzzles are simply a lot of fun. Why are beer cans tapered on the end, anyway?

In this compelling life of Carl Sagan, award-winning science writer William Poundstone details the transformation of a bookish young astronomer obsessed with life on other worlds into science''s first authentic media superstar. The instantly recognizable Sagan, a fixture on television and a bestselling author, offered the layperson entry into the mysteries of the cosmos and of science in general. To much of the scientific community, however, he was a pariah, a brazen publicity seeker who cared more about his image and his fortune than the advancement of science. Poundstone reveals the seldom-discussed aspects of Sagan''s life, the legitimate and important work of his early scientific career, the almost obsessive capacity to take on endless projects, and the multiple marriages and fractured personal life, in what The New Yorker called an "evenhanded guide" to a great man''s career.

From the author of the mega-selling Big Secrets comes the equally entertaining sequel which unveils the truth about all sorts of things you are never supposed to know. The recipe for Mrs. Fields Cookies... What backward messages on records are really trying to tell you... Frank Sinatra''s real age... Why you can''t counterfeit a lottery ticket... Barbra Streisand''s blue movie... The other Boy Scout rituals... Ingmar Bergman''s soap commercials... The formula for Play-Doh... and more.

A masterful work of science writing that’s "both a fascinating biography of von Neumann, the Hungarian exile whose mathematical theories were building blocks for the A-bomb and the digital computer, and a brilliant social history of game theory and its role in the Cold War and nuclear arms race" (San Francisco Chronicle). Should you watch public television without pledging?...Exceed the posted speed limit?...Hop a subway turnstile without paying? These questions illustrate the so-called "prisoner''s dilemma", a social puzzle that we all face every day. Though the answers may seem simple, their profound implications make the prisoner''s dilemma one of the great unifying concepts of science. Watching players bluff in a poker game inspired John von Neumann—father of the modern computer and one of the sharpest minds of the century—to construct game theory, a mathematical study of conflict and deception. Game theory was readily embraced at the RAND Corporation, the archetypical think tank charged with formulating military strategy for the atomic age, and in 1950 two RAND scientists made a momentous discovery. Called the "prisoner''s dilemma," it is a disturbing and mind-bending game where two or more people may betray the common good for individual gain. Introduced shortly after the Soviet Union acquired the atomic bomb, the prisoner''s dilemma quickly became a popular allegory of the nuclear arms race. Intellectuals such as von Neumann and Bertrand Russell joined military and political leaders in rallying to the "preventive war" movement, which advocated a nuclear first strike against the Soviet Union. Though the Truman administration rejected preventive war the United States entered into an arms race with the Soviets and game theory developed into a controversial tool of public policy—alternately accused of justifying arms races and touted as the only hope of preventing them. Prisoner''s Dilemma is the incisive story of a revolutionary idea that has been hailed as a landmark of twentieth-century thought.

The Ultimate is sophisticated fun, literate trivia in the witty, anecdotal and provocative style fmailiar to Poundstone fans across the country. Here Poundstone establishes objective ways of determining what really is the biggest, the highest, the greatest, and the best.

This sharply intelligent, consistently provocative book takes the reader on an astonishing, thought-provoking voyage into the realm of delightful uncertainty--a world of paradox in which logical argument leads to contradiction and common sense is seemingly rendered irrelevant.

Cultural sleuth William Poundstone tells the secret recipe for oysters Rockefeller; the location of the federal government''s underground bunker for use in a nuclear war; the phone company''s own unlisted numbers; and more than a hundred other secrets.