New Releases by Niall Ferguson

A biografia de um dos maiores estadistas do século 20 Nenhum estadista norte-americano foi tão reverenciado e criticado como Henry Kissinger. Considerado por alguns um "homem indispensável", cujos conselhos foram requisitados por todos os presidentes de John F. Kennedy até Barack Obama, Kissinger também atraiu uma horda de críticos hostis que o pintaram como um estrategista maquiavélico amoral – o epítome do realista "sangue-frio". Neste livro, o primeiro de dois volumes, Niall Ferguson traçou um panorama extraordinário do mundo de Kissinger. Somente através de de suas origens – judeu na Alemanha do Terceiro Reich, pobre imigrante em Nova York, soldado na Batalha das Ardenas, interrogador de nazistas e estudante de história em Harvard – é possível entender sua dívida com o idealismo. E apenas ao rastrear sua ascensão, queda e renascimento como conselheiro de Kennedy, Nelson Rockefeller e Richard Nixon, poderemos apreciar a magnitude de sua contribuição à teoria da diplomacia, estratégia e luta contra a guerra nuclear. Partindo de registros confidenciais de Kissinger, mas também de documentos de mais de cem arquivos ao redor do mundo, esta biografia é a obra-prima de Niall Ferguson, que reconstrói toda uma era.

"All disasters are in some sense man-made." Setting the annus horribilis of 2020 in historical perspective, Niall Ferguson explains why we are getting worse, not better, at handling disasters. Disasters are inherently hard to predict. Pandemics, like earthquakes, wildfires, financial crises. and wars, are not normally distributed; there is no cycle of history to help us anticipate the next catastrophe. But when disaster strikes, we ought to be better prepared than the Romans were when Vesuvius erupted, or medieval Italians when the Black Death struck. We have science on our side, after all. Yet in 2020 the responses of many developed countries, including the United States, to a new virus from China were badly bungled. Why? Why did only a few Asian countries learn the right lessons from SARS and MERS? While populist leaders certainly performed poorly in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, Niall Ferguson argues that more profound pathologies were at work--pathologies already visible in our responses to earlier disasters. In books going back nearly twenty years, including Colossus, The Great Degeneration, and The Square and the Tower, Ferguson has studied the foibles of modern America, from imperial hubris to bureaucratic sclerosis and online fragmentation. Drawing from multiple disciplines, including economics, cliodynamics, and network science, Doom offers not just a history but a general theory of disasters, showing why our ever more bureaucratic and complex systems are getting worse at handling them. Doom is the lesson of history that this country--indeed the West as a whole--urgently needs to learn, if we want to handle the next crisis better, and to avoid the ultimate doom of irreversible decline.

Una historia de las catástrofes deslumbrante, original y repleta de ideas para el futuro que pone en perspectiva el ya conocido como annus horribilis. Los desastres son difíciles de prever, pero en la actualidad deberíamos estar mejor preparados contra las catástrofes que los romanos cuando el Vesubio entró en erupción o que los italianos cuando golpeó la Peste Negra en la Edad Media. Al fin y al cabo, nosotros contamos con la ciencia. Sin embargo, tal y como ha quedado demostrado con la crisis del coronavirus, la respuesta de la mayoría de países desarrollados ante un nuevo patógeno ha sido más bien torpe. ¿Cómo es posible? Niall Ferguson sostiene, entre muchas otras cosas, que estaban en juego patologías previas arraigadas ya visibles en nuestras respuestas a otros desastres del pasado. Desde diversas disciplinas, incluidas la economía y la ciencia de redes, Desastre ofrece no solo una historia, sino también una teoría general de los desastres, y expone cómo nuestros complejos y atrofiados sistemas de gobernanza son incapaces de afrontar las crisis. Como muestra Ferguson, los gobiernos deben aprender a ser menos burocráticos y más resilientes si quieren evitar un declive irreversible. ENGLISH DESCRIPTION A compelling and original history of catastrophes, full of ideas for the future, that puts into perspective the year already known as annus horribilis. Disaster is hard to prevent, but nowadays we should be better prepared for catastrophes than the Romans were when the Vesuvius erupted or than the Italians when the black plague hit in the Middle Ages. After all, we have science. However, just as it has been proven with the coronavirus crisis, most developed countries response to a new pathogen is clumsy at best. How is this possible? Niall Ferguson argues, among many other things, that previous pathologies, rooted and visible in our response to past disasters, were at stake. From several fields, including economics and social network science, Doom offers not just history, but a comprehensive theory of disaster, exhibiting how our complex and atrophied governance systems are uncapable of facing crisis. As Ferguson shows, governments should learn to be less bureaucratic and more resilient if they wish to avoid an irreversible decline.

Alle rampen worden tot op zekere hoogte door de mens veroorzaakt

Dit is het verhaal van voorspoed en crises zoals nooit eerder is verteld. Niall Ferguson toont overtuigend hoe het financiële de achtergrond vormt voor alle geschiedenis.

The instant New York Times bestseller. A brilliant recasting of the turning points in world history, including the one we''re living through, as a collision between old power hierarchies and new social networks. “Captivating and compelling.” —The New York Times "Niall Ferguson has again written a brilliant book...In 400 pages you will have restocked your mind. Do it." —The Wall Street Journal “The Square and the Tower, in addition to being provocative history, may prove to be a bellwether work of the Internet Age.” —Christian Science Monitor Most history is hierarchical: it''s about emperors, presidents, prime ministers and field marshals. It''s about states, armies and corporations. It''s about orders from on high. Even history "from below" is often about trade unions and workers'' parties. But what if that''s simply because hierarchical institutions create the archives that historians rely on? What if we are missing the informal, less well documented social networks that are the true sources of power and drivers of change? The 21st century has been hailed as the Age of Networks. However, in The Square and the Tower, Niall Ferguson argues that networks have always been with us, from the structure of the brain to the food chain, from the family tree to freemasonry. Throughout history, hierarchies housed in high towers have claimed to rule, but often real power has resided in the networks in the town square below. For it is networks that tend to innovate. And it is through networks that revolutionary ideas can contagiously spread. Just because conspiracy theorists like to fantasize about such networks doesn''t mean they are not real. From the cults of ancient Rome to the dynasties of the Renaissance, from the founding fathers to Facebook, The Square and the Tower tells the story of the rise, fall and rise of networks, and shows how network theory--concepts such as clustering, degrees of separation, weak ties, contagions and phase transitions--can transform our understanding of both the past and the present. Just as The Ascent of Money put Wall Street into historical perspective, so The Square and the Tower does the same for Silicon Valley. And it offers a bold prediction about which hierarchies will withstand this latest wave of network disruption--and which will be toppled.

Una historia de las redes organizacionales que han cambiado el mundo y una invitación a la reflexión escéptica sobre el papel que tienen en nuestra sociedad. Gran parte de la historia se explica de forma jerárquica: tiene que ver con papas, reyes o presidentes. Pero, ¿y si fuera así por el simple hecho de que han sido ellos los que han creado los archivos históricos? ¿Y si estuviéramos omitiendo y relegando la influencia de redes de organización igual de poderosas pero menos visibles? El siglo XXI se ha proclamado como la Era de la Red, pero en este libro Niall Ferguson nos recuerda que las redes sociales no tienen nada de novedoso. Desde la época de la imprenta y de los predicadores que llevaron a cabo la Reforma hasta los masones que lideraron la Revolución estadounidense, fueron las redes organizacionales las que interrumpieron el orden establecido. Así pues, lejos de ser una novedad, nuestra era es más bien una prolongación de la anterior, con el ordenador en el lugar central que en su momento ocupó el papel impreso. Las redes son propensas a la agrupación y la expansión, pero, ante todo, son propensas a las interrupciones. Así, los conflictos del pasado encuentran paralelismos desconcertantes en la actualidad, tanto en Facebook, como en el Estado Islámico y el mundo trumpiano. En La plaza y la torre , el mejor Ferguson revela la historia oculta de las redes organizacionales que han cambiado el rumbo del mundo y la presenta como un antídoto contra las teorías de la conspiración y un desafío a la historiografía tradicional, que nunca ha prestado demasiada atención a las redes informales de influencia. Reseñas: «Cautivante y convincente.» The New York Times «Niall Ferguson ha escrito nuevamente un brillante libro... En 400 páginas habrás reabastecido tu mente. Hazlo.» The Wall Street Journal «Ferguson nos recuerda que la red social no surgió completa de la mente de Mark Zuckerberg; más bien, es una fuerza persistente en los asuntos humanos que ofrece una lente novedosa sobre el pasado y el desconcertante presente.» San Francisco Chronicle «El intelecto y el estilo de Ferguson harán que su hábil revisión de la historia reverbere en los años venideros.» The Guardian

Hoe netwerken de wereldgeschiedenis hebben veranderd

Is it time to reaffirm our liberal values? Or are we seeing the birth-pangs of a new era? Two great thinkers debate the question burning behind headlines across the world. ‘No civilization, no matter how mighty it may appear to itself, is indestructible.’ –Niall Ferguson ‘We do not need to invent the world anew. The international order established by the United States after World War II is in need of expansion and repair, but not reconception.’ –Fareed Zakaria Fears of a globalized world are rampant. Across the West, borders are being reasserted and old alliances tested to their limits. Could this be the end of the liberal order or will the major crises of the twenty-first century strengthen our resolve?

From the bestselling author of The Ascent of Money and The Square and the Tower, the definitive biography of Henry Kissinger, based on unprecedented access to his private papers. Winner of the Council on Foreign Relations Arthur Ross Book Award No American statesman has been as revered or as reviled as Henry Kissinger. Once hailed as “Super K”—the “indispensable man” whose advice has been sought by every president from Kennedy to Obama—he has also been hounded by conspiracy theorists, scouring his every “telcon” for evidence of Machiavellian malfeasance. Yet as Niall Ferguson shows in this magisterial two-volume biography, drawing not only on Kissinger’s hitherto closed private papers but also on documents from more than a hundred archives around the world, the idea of Kissinger as the ruthless arch-realist is based on a profound misunderstanding. The first half of Kissinger’s life is usually skimmed over as a quintessential tale of American ascent: the Jewish refugee from Hitler’s Germany who made it to the White House. But in this first of two volumes, Ferguson shows that what Kissinger achieved before his appointment as Richard Nixon’s national security adviser was astonishing in its own right. Toiling as a teenager in a New York factory, he studied indefatigably at night. He was drafted into the U.S. infantry and saw action at the Battle of the Bulge—as well as the liberation of a concentration camp—but ended his army career interrogating Nazis. It was at Harvard that Kissinger found his vocation. Having immersed himself in the philosophy of Kant and the diplomacy of Metternich, he shot to celebrity by arguing for “limited nuclear war.” Nelson Rockefeller hired him. Kennedy called him to Camelot. Yet Kissinger’s rise was anything but irresistible. Dogged by press gaffes and disappointed by “Rocky,” Kissinger seemed stuck—until a trip to Vietnam changed everything. The Idealist is the story of one of the most important strategic thinkers America has ever produced. It is also a political Bildungsroman, explaining how “Dr. Strangelove” ended up as consigliere to a politician he had always abhorred. Like Ferguson’s classic two-volume history of the House of Rothschild, Kissinger sheds dazzling new light on an entire era. The essential account of an extraordinary life, it recasts the Cold War world.

From the bestselling author of The Ascent of Money and The Square and the Tower, a searching and provocative examination of the widespread institutional rot that threatens our collective future What causes rich countries to lose their way? Symptoms of decline are all around us today: slowing growth, crushing debts, increasing inequality, aging populations, antisocial behavior. But what exactly has gone wrong? The answer, Niall Ferguson argues in The Great Degeneration, is that our institutions—the intricate frameworks within which a society can flourish or fail—are degenerating. With characteristic verve and historical insight, Ferguson analyzes the causes of this stagnation and its profound consequences for the future of the West. The Great Degeneration is an incisive indictment of an era of negligence and complacency—and to arrest the breakdown of our civilization, Ferguson warns, will take heroic leadership and radical reform.

Porta d''accesso al «secolo breve», guerra che avrebbe dovuto porre fine a tutte le guerre, «inutile strage »: il primo conflitto mondiale fu una tragedia che costò la vita a oltre nove milioni di persone e inferse all''Europa della Belle Époque una ferita profonda che ne trasfigurò per sempre il ruolo sul palcoscenico della storia mondiale. La Grande guerra fu lo sbocco finale della corsa agli armamenti perseguita dalle principali potenze europee (in particolare dalla Germania), il frutto avvelenato dell''imperialismo, l¿esito dell''azione di forze storiche talmente potenti e vaste che nessun politico, diplomatico o militare fu in grado di contrastarla. In breve, una sorta di fatale e ineluttabile Armageddon. Sono queste le interpretazioni che gli storici hanno dato delle origini e delle cause della prima guerra mondiale. Ma davvero il Reich tedesco rappresentava una minaccia per l''ordine e la stabilità dell¿Europa? Davvero si trattò di un conflitto inevitabile? A queste e altre domande risponde lo storico Niall Ferguson. Muovendosi in una interdisciplinare «terra di nessuno», confrontando dati economici e finanziari, rileggendo i testi dei «poeti di guerra», gli articoli dei principali quotidiani dell''epoca, come pure i libri di memorie o i documenti diplomatici, Ferguson fa piazza pulita di tanti miti e luoghi comuni e solleva questioni cruciali che intaccano alla radice la nostra percezione e conoscenza della prima guerra mondiale: è vero che l''opinione pubblica accolse la guerra con entusiasmo, come spesso è stato scritto? E quale peso ebbe la propaganda nei paesi belligeranti? Se le condizioni di vita nelle trincee erano così spaventose, se le armi impiegate erano così micidiali, perché gli uomini continuarono a combattere e non disertarono o non si ammutinarono? Chi vinse la pace, o meglio, a chi toccò di pagare il prezzo della guerra? E soprattutto: ne valse la pena? Alla fine Il grido dei morti, nelle sue conclusioni provocatorie e sconcertanti, originali e controcorrente, ci consegna un''unica, terribile verità: la prima guerra mondiale non fu soltanto una tragedia. Fu il più grave errore della storia moderna.

Welche Faktoren haben 1914 den Zusammenbruch der europäischen Ordnung tatsächlich bewirkt? Wie wäre die Entwicklung verlaufen, wenn Großbritannien nicht in den Krieg eingetreten wäre? Niall Ferguson entwirft ein weitgefasstes Panorama des Krieges, verdeutlicht das komplexe Ursachengeflecht und rückt insbesondere die Kriegsschuldfrage in ein neues Licht. Auch die häufig vorgebrachte These von der »Unvermeidbarkeit« des Ersten Weltkrieges ist so nicht länger haltbar. Ferguson geht sowohl mit der deutschen als auch mit der britischen Politik jener Zeit scharf ins Gericht: Auf beiden Seiten haben politisches Unvermögen, unverantwortlicher Ehrgeiz, katastrophale Fehleinschätzungen und der skrupellose Bruch internationalen Rechts zur »Urkatastrophe des 20. Jahrhunderts« geführt, die Millionen Menschen das Leben kostete und in fataler Weise auf die weitere Geschichte Europas gewirkt hat.

Un análisis de las causas del declive actual de occidente. Hace tiempo que se anuncia el declive de Occidente, pero ahora los síntomas de esa decadencia nos acosan: un crecimiento mínimo, una deuda asfixiante, una población envejecida, conductas antisociales. ¿Qué le pasa a la civilización occidental? La respuesta que ofrece Niall Ferguson es que nuestras instituciones, los complejos marcos dentro de los que una sociedad puede florecer o fracasar, están degenerando. El gobierno representativo, el libre mercado, el imperio de la ley y la sociedad civil: estos solían ser los cuatro pilares de las sociedades occidentales. Estas instituciones, más que ninguna ventaja geográfica o climatológica, permitieron el dominio global de Occidente a partir de 1500. En nuestra época, sin embargo, estas instituciones se han deteriorado de modo alarmante. Nuestras democracias han roto el pacto intergeneracional al dejar una pesada carga de deuda a nuestros hijos y nietos. Nuestros mercados cada vez están más distorsionados por regulaciones excesivamente complejas que son la enfermedad de la que pretenden ser la cura. El imperio de la ley se ha convertido en el imperio de los abogados. Y la sociedad civil es ahora la sociedad incivil, en la que esperamos que el Estado resuelva todos nuestros problemas. La gran degeneración es un poderoso y en ocasiones polémico alegato contra una era de negligencia y pasividad. Mientras el mundo árabe lucha por alcanzar la democracia y China avanza de la liberalización económica al imperio de la ley, europeos y estadounidenses malgastan el legado institucional construido a lo largo de varios siglos. Detener la degeneración de la civilización occidental, advierte Ferguson, requerirá líderes audaces y una reforma radical.

O que é o dinheiro? O que os bancos fazem? Qual é a diferença entre uma ação e um título? Por que contratar e comprar um seguro de bens imóveis? E o que faz exatamente um fundo hedge? Considerado pela revista Times uma das cem pessoas mais influentes do mundo, o historiador Niall Ferguson traz um estudo brilhante da história financeira em A ascensão do dinheiro, e explica porque os aspectos financeiros só fazem sentido se soubermos sua origem. E ainda documenta como uma nova revolução financeira está impulsionando alguns dos maiores países do mundo, da pobreza abjeta à riqueza no espaço de uma única geração - uma transformação econômica sem precedentes na história humana.

In this groundbreaking biography, based on more than 10,000 hitherto unavailable letters and diary entries, Niall Ferguson returns to his roots as a financial historian to tell the story of the extraordinary Siegmund Warburg. A refugee from Hitler''s Germany, Warburg rose to become the dominant figure in the post-war City of London and one of the architects of European financial integration. Seared by events in the 1930s, when the long-established Warburg bank was first almost destroyed by the Depression and then ''Aryanized'' by the Nazis, Warburg was determined that his own bank would learn from the past and contribute to the economic recovery of Britain, the unity of Western Europe and the birth of globalization. Siegmund Warburg was a complex and ambivalent man, as much a psychologist, politician and actor-manager as a banker. In High Financier Niall Ferguson reveals Warburg''s idiosyncracies but above all he recaptures the meticulous business methods and strict ethical code that set Warburg apart from the mere speculators and traders who inhabit today''s financial world.

La versión definitiva de la historia global contemporánea. Un viajero que recorriera el mundo en 1411 hubiera quedado deslumbrado por las imponentes civilizaciones orientales. La Ciudad Prohibida estaba en plena construcción en la China de los Ming; en Oriente Próximo, los otomanos acechaban Constantinopla. Por el contrario, los belicosos países de Europa occidental, Inglaterra, Escocia, Castilla, Aragón, Francia y Portugal, eran pobres y atrasados, debilitados por las epidemias, las pésimas condiciones sanitarias y las guerras incesantes. En cuanto a Norteamérica, en el siglo XV era un espacio poco habitado y anárquico en comparación con los impresionantes y organizados imperios de los incas y los aztecas. La idea de que Occidente pudiera llegar a dominar al resto del mundo durante el siguiente medio milenio le hubiera parecido ilusoria. Y, sin embargo, eso fue lo que ocurrió. ¿Qué permitió a la civilización de Europa occidental dominar a los aparentemente superiores imperios orientales? Según Niall Ferguson, Occidente logró desarrollar seis poderosos instrumentos, la competencia, la ciencia, el imperio de la ley, la medicina, la sociedad de consumo y la ética del trabajo. La cuestión fundamental hoy día es si Occidente ha perdido el monopolio de estos seis resortes del poder global. Para averiguarlo, Civilización nos lleva a un extraordinario viaje alrededor del mundo, del Gran Canal en Nankín al palacio de Topkapi en Estambul, del Machu Picchu en los Andes a la isla del Tiburón en Namibia; de las altas torres de Praga a las iglesias secretas de Wenzhou. Es la historia de los barcos de vela, los misiles, los títulos de propiedad, las vacunas, los pantalones vaqueros y las biblias chinas. Es la versión definitiva de la historia global contemporánea. La crítica ha dicho... «Un libro agudo y rabiosamente actual. Ferguson, dotado de una mente perspicaz, sabe cómo llegar al núcleo de las cosas y lo hace con gran pulso narrativo.» Andrew Marr, Financial Times «Civilización es otra obra maestra... una gran fuerza guía la exposición y cada página revela datos fascinantes.» Dominic Lawson, Sunday Times «Erudito y, a la vez, ameno.» Mario Vargas Llosa, El País «Uno de los historiadores más reconocidos del mundo.» Hamish McRae, Independent