New Releases by Richard H. Thaler

Named one of Financial Times’s Best Books of 2025, that bestselling author Tim Hartford called "fun" and "nerdy in the best way" Nobel Prize winner Richard H. Thaler and rising star economist Alex O. Imas explore the past, present, and cutting-edge future in behavioral economics in The Winner’s Curse. Why do people cooperate with one another when they have no obvious motivation to do so? Why do we hold on to possessions of little value? And why is the winner of an auction so often disappointed? Over thirty years ago, Richard H. Thaler introduced readers to behavioral economics in his seminal Anomalies column, written with collaborators including Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. These provocative articles challenged the fundamental idea at the heart of economics that people are selfish, rational optimizers, and provided the foundation for what became behavioral economics. That was then. Now, three decades later, Thaler has teamed up with economist Alex O. Imas to write a new book with an original and creative format. Each chapter starts with an original Anomaly, retaining the spirit of its time stamp. Then, shifting to the present, the authors provide updates to each, asking how the original findings have held up and how the field has evolved since then. It turns out that the original findings not only hold up well, but they show up almost everywhere. Anomalies pop up in people’s decisions to save for retirement and how they carry outstanding credit card debt. Even experts fail to optimize. The key concept of loss aversion explains missed putts by PGA pros and the selection of which stocks to sell by portfolio managers. In this era of meme stocks and Dogecoin, it is hard to defend the view that financial markets are highly efficient. The good news, however, is that the anomalies have gotten funnier. With both readability and rigor, The Winner’s Curse is for anyone, from those with a cursory understanding of economics to fellow economists. Each chapter provides a key insight into human behavior so readers learn how to better understand the choices made by their friends, colleagues, and customers, and they might just become better at making decisions themselves. Only recommended for humans.

Edição ampliada e definitiva de um dos maiores clássicos sobre tomada de decisão, escrito por Richard H. Thaler, ganhador do prêmio Nobel de economia, e Cass R. Sunstein, professor de Harvard. * Best-seller do New York Times * Mais de 2 milhões de cópias vendidas Com base em décadas de pesquisas em ciência comportamental e usando diversos exemplos reveladores, os autores mostram que nenhuma opção nos é apresentada de forma neutra, e que estamos todos suscetíveis a tomar decisões ruins. Desde a primeira edição deste livro, a palavra "nudge" entrou para o vocabulário de executivos, formuladores de políticas públicas e consumidores. A inovadora discussão sobre como todos nós respondemos a determinados "empurrões" (nudges) na hora de tomar decisões relacionadas a saúde, vida pessoal ou dinheiro conquistou uma multidão de leitores. Os "nudges" estão em toda parte: podem ser uma imagem, um formulário, uma disposição de produtos, listas brancas próximas na estrada. Trata-se de qualquer aspecto que altera (ou empurra) o comportamento das pessoas em uma determinada direção, sem envolver alguma proibição, multa ou obrigação. Durante o isolamento social imposto pela covid-19, os autores decidiram revisitar o conceito e atualizar exemplos no campo da saúde, meio ambiente e finanças. Sem perder o tom leve e bem-humorado, trazem ferramentas valiosas sobre tomada de decisão para indivíduos, empresas e governos. "Poucos livros mudaram o mundo. Nudge é um deles" – Daniel Kahneman, autor de Rápido e devagar

2017年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主、行為經濟學之父──理查．塞勒，所寫的「行為經濟學」最佳入門書！ 一章一個概念，帶您了解最基礎的觀念！ 這本書探究人類不理性的一面， 心理學＋經濟學，讓你更了解人性！ 這就是行為經濟學（Behavioral economics）—— 本書為現今熱門的「行為經濟學」、「行為財務學」的經典之作，書中研究人類決策的不理性面，所造成的矛盾與反常現象，後來被許多經濟學書籍反覆討論，例如《誰說人是理性的》、《蘋果橘子經濟學》等等。 本書用一些簡單、甚至很有趣的例子，來說明一些反常現象，例如： 拍賣競標的贏家，其實往往是輸家──「贏家的詛咒」現象； 賭徒在輸了一整天後，會孤注一擲，押在勝算最小（賠率最大）的標的上； 人們突然獲得一筆小錢，常常會花掉；但獲得一大筆意外之財，常常會存起來； 放棄一項物品所損失的效用，多於獲得它所帶來的效用──「損失趨避」現象； 足球迷最多願意付200美元買一張超級盃門票，但要他們出售手上的票，他們會開價至少400美元。 藉由許多有趣的實驗，「行為經濟學之父」塞勒剖析了人類不理性的決策及其原因，這些違背了理性自利、效用極大化，或是邏輯不一致的行為，可能提供了套利機會，更引發了行為經濟學的研究。本書囊括許多重要主題，包括：合作與公平觀念、賽局、拍賣競標、不同產業的薪資差異、損失趨避、現狀偏誤、偏好反轉、跨期選擇、心理帳戶、樂透及賽馬投注、股市的日曆效應、回歸平均值、股價能不能預測、外匯市場等等。 對於經濟學稍有涉獵的讀者，本書可以帶您進入經濟研究的廣闊世界。在實務上，也可提供企業行銷、個人消費與儲蓄、投資理財的深度思考。

"Misbehaving" by Richard H. Thaler challenges the traditional economic assumption of rational actors, revealing how humans consistently deviate from rationality in decision-making. Thaler, a pioneer in behavioral economics, explores the serious consequences of these misbehaviors in various aspects of life, from personal finance to market dynamics. The book narrates his journey to bring the study of human miscalculations into mainstream economics, highlighting the intersection of psychology and economics. Thaler's work emphasizes that economic trends are unpredictable due to human unpredictability, offering insights into making smarter decisions in a complex world. The book combines humor, anecdotes, and academic rigor to provide a unique perspective on the profound impact of behavioral economics on individuals, businesses, and governments.

El libro que inspiró a Barack Obama los fundamentos de la política al demostrar el poder de un pequeño empujón. Por el Premio Nobel de Economía 2017 Richard H. Thaler. En Un pequeño empujón, considerado ya un clásico y uno de los mejores libros sobre economía y política de las últimas décadas, Cass R. Sunstein y Richard H. Thaler, premio Nobel de Economía, observan cómo nuestras percepciones y decisiones dependen del modo en que se organizan ante nosotros las diferentes opciones. Gobiernos y empresas, pero también padres, profesores y médicos, se convierten así en una especie de «arquitectos de la elección». A través de leves impulsos, conscientes, a menudo invisibles y cuyo coste económico y político es irrisorio, las personas e instituciones públicas o privadas pueden incentivar sin mermar la libertad de elección de los ciudadanos, y obtener así grandes logros en relación con la sanidad pública, las finanzas o la lucha contra la desigualdad. Un libro esencial para quienes formulan nuestras políticas públicas, pero cuya aplicabilidad en nuestras vidas cotidianas es sorprendente y maravillosamente eficaz. Críticas: «¿Cuántas veces se encuentra uno con un libro a la vez importante y divertido, práctico y profundo? De lectura obligada para quien quiera ver mejorar el funcionamiento de nuestras mentes y nuestra sociedad». Daniel Kahneman, Premio Nobel de Economía y autor de Pensar rápido, pensar despacio «Me entusiasma este libro. Es uno de los pocos que han cambiado de un modo trascendente mi manera de ver el mundo». Steve Levitt, autor de Freakonomics «El libro más importante que he leído en veinte años». Barry Schwartz, The American Prospect «Fabuloso. Cambiará tu forma de pensar, no solo sobre el mundo que te rodea y algunos de sus mayores problemas, sino también sobre ti mismo». Michael Lewis, autor de La gran apuesta y Deshaciendo errores

Argues that economical trends cannot be predicted as much as thought, mainly because humans are so unpredictable, and reveals how behavioral economic analysis opens up new ways to look at everything from household finance to assigning faculty offices in a new building.

Voorlichtingsdeskundige studie over de wijze waarop het grote publiek kan worden gebracht tot het maken van betere en meer verantwoorde keuzes op allerlei gebied.

Has the Nudge Unit Given you a Gentle Push in the Right Direction? Adding just one sentence to a tax reminder brought in millions in extra revenue, Prompting people to become organ donors while paying for their car tax added an extra 100/000 donors to the register, Refocusing the questions asked at the job centre helped an extra 10% of people off benefits and back to work.

Behavioral Economics is the combination of psychology and economics that investigates what happens in markets in which some of the agents display human limitations and complications. We begin with a preliminary question about relevance. Does some combination of market forces, learning and evolution render these human qualities irrelevant? No. Because of limits of arbitrage less than perfect agents survive and influence market outcomes. We then discuss three important ways in which humans deviate from the standard economic model. Bounded rationality reflects the limited cognitive abilities that constrain human problem solving. Bounded willpower captures the fact that people sometimes make choices that are not in their long-run interest. Bounded self-interest incorporates the comforting fact that humans are often willing to sacrifice their own interests to help others. We then illustrate how these concepts can be applied in two settings: finance and savings. Financial markets have greater arbitrage opportunities than other markets, so behavioral factors might be thought to be less important here, but we show that even here the limits of arbitrage create anomalies that the psychology of decision making helps explain. Since saving for retirement requires both complex calculations and willpower, behavioral factors are essential elements of any complete descriptive theory

Standard economics theory is built on the assumption that human beings act rationally in their own self interest. But if rationality is such a reliable factor, why do economic models so often fail to predict market behavior accurately? According to Richard Thaler, the shortcomings of the standard approach arise from its failure to take into account systematic mental biases that color all human judgments and decisions.

Initiations and omissions of dividend payments are important changes in corporate financial policy. This paper investigates the market reaction to such changes in terms of prices, volume, and changes in clientele. Consistent with the prior literature we find that short run price reactions to omissions are greater than for initiations ( -7.0% vs. +3.4% three day return). However, we show that, when we control for the change in the magnitude of dividend yield (which is larger for omissions), the asymmetry shrinks or disappears, depending on the specification. In the 12 months after the announcement (excluding the event calendar month), there is a significant positive market-adjusted return for firms initiating dividends of +7.5% and a significant negative market-adjusted return for firms omitting dividends of -11.0%. However, the post dividend omission drift is distinct from and more pronounced than that following earnings surprises. A trading rule employing both samples (long in initiation stocks and short in omission stocks) earns positive returns in 22 out of 25 years. Although these changes in dividend policy might be expected to produce shifts in clientele, we find little evidence for such a shift. Volume increases, but only slightly and briefly, and there are no important changes in institutional ownership.

In its attempt to model financial markets and the behavior of firms, modern finance theory starts from a set of normatively appealing axioms about individual behavior. Specifically, people are said to be risk-averse expected utility maximizers and unbiased Bayesian forecasters, i.e., agents make rational choices based on rational expectations. The rational paradigm may be criticized, however, because (1) the assumptions are descriptively false and incomplete, and (2) the theory often lacks predictive power. One way to make progress is to characterize actual decision- making behavior. Efforts along these lines are made by behavioral economists and psychologists. This paper provides a selective review of recent work in behavioral finance. First, we ask why economists should be concerned with the psychology of decision-making. Next, we discuss a series of key behavioral concepts, e.g., people's well-known tendencies to give too much weight to vivid information and to show excessive self-confidence. The body of the paper illustrates the relevance of these concepts to important topics in investment theory and corporate finance. In each case, behavioral finance offers a new perspective on results that are anomalous within the standard approach.

A collection of 21 recent articles that illustrate the power of a new approach to finance, one which as editor Thaler puts it, "entertains the possibility that some of the agents in the economy behave less than fully rationally some of the time." These papers illustrate how specific departures from fully rational decisionmaking by individual market agents can provide explanations of otherwise puzzling market phenomena. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

The equity premium puzzle, first documented by Mehra and Prescott, refers to the empirical fact that stocks have greatly outperformed bonds over the last century. As Mehra and Prescott point out, it appears difficult to explain the magnitude of the equity premium within the usual economics paradigm because the level of risk aversion necessary to justify such a large premium is implausibly large. We offer a new explanation based on Kahneman and Tversky's 'prospect theory'. The explanation has two components. First, investors are assumed to be 'loss averse' meaning they are distinctly more sensitive to losses than to gains. Second, investors are assumed to evaluate their portfolios frequently, even if they have long-term investment goals such as saving for retirement or managing a pension plan. We dub this combination 'myopic loss aversion'. Using simulations we find that the size of the equity premium is consistent with the previously estimated parameters of prospect theory if investors evaluate their portfolios annually. That is, investors appear to choose portfolios as if they were operating with a time horizon of about one year. The same approach is then used to study the size effect. Preliminary results suggest that myopic loss aversion may also have some explanatory power for this anomaly.